Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 84159.539704 88810.016356 93456.907288 98445.322400 103645.415791 108903.002025 114617.119306
2024-12-22 75726.732032 82791.765458 90047.879980 98046.930601 106607.055087 115482.455880 125369.831756
2024-12-29 71053.260144 79869.928241 89120.906319 99529.878719 110893.749592 122901.678325 136527.366780
2025-01-05 67131.216992 77249.987691 88059.601209 100431.013739 114161.543642 128896.700181 145868.367137
2025-01-12 63387.985246 74478.670301 86516.490132 100501.060846 116246.348271 133371.677004 153350.891231
2025-01-19 60053.807492 71914.689828 84975.749743 100354.942448 117894.438008 137200.089128 159979.903216
2025-01-26 58363.878997 71074.466710 85250.328055 102140.205782 121619.116534 143281.712647 169093.257796
2025-02-02 56865.046844 70339.364575 85545.215640 103860.338469 125200.580520 149157.496032 177956.852980
2025-02-09 54986.832684 69050.698380 85103.163585 104640.539461 127628.478378 153666.557448 185230.946986
2025-02-16 52768.001635 67252.233276 83969.036235 104522.135990 128934.919295 156825.685379 190908.622666
2025-02-23 51086.994949 66019.070691 83432.430039 105044.563323 130940.880139 160761.906811 197473.353677
2025-03-02 49245.853155 64513.672187 82500.588625 105030.772657 132257.666400 163852.305782 203024.730867
2025-03-09 48155.199756 63912.468444 82656.820337 106341.451155 135194.303378 168918.255329 211010.460863
2025-03-16 46269.399234 62260.548600 81478.271816 105984.077208 136088.668857 171540.746689 216096.750606
2025-03-23 45476.500101 61942.706049 81910.235704 107577.373997 139340.653586 176991.407556 224595.520349
2025-03-30 44432.648958 61262.858780 81856.103699 108539.813221 141801.946042 181484.829805 231955.707539
2025-04-06 43032.315255 60075.857821 81122.200656 108615.089631 143138.789817 184595.860344 237637.478642
2025-04-13 41604.410689 58804.347269 80237.275084 108459.724808 144156.172025 187295.380120 242809.905071
2025-04-20 41183.695375 58827.804207 80984.933584 110359.746502 147741.439561 193160.835518 251895.514795
2025-04-27 40759.279598 58825.470530 81684.349018 112190.043824 151241.271823 198936.224113 260904.163243
2025-05-04 39926.372512 58250.303279 81618.924631 113020.089107 153465.640044 203130.158494 267971.464474
2025-05-11 38729.313153 57149.690557 80836.306582 112894.126730 154450.617230 205765.125101 273098.542677
2025-05-18 37869.769427 56478.939433 80593.755715 113449.894776 156294.859286 209474.419354 279579.770944